http://www.ispeech.org/text.to.speech
Everyone loves to talk about house prices, don’t they? Whilst for me talking about house prices often leads to a speculative guess of what they will do, there is no doubt in my mind that UK house prices have been and will continue to be propped up over the long-term. Some may say by a rigged system that ensures it. So, what are the key factors that give rise to this notion of mine?
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
Resources mentioned
Link to the Podcast feedback survey
Today’s must do’s
Why not share the love, or if not the love, share The Property Voice Podcast instead? Here are 3 quick ways you can help others to know what you now:
- Leave us an iTunes review
- Look out for our social media podcast posts and click to share
- Join our mailing list and then forward on our email now and again to a friend or business associate
You will feel good in knowing that you will be helping someone to get going or overcome a challenge in their property investing…so it’s good Karma to share really 🙂
Subscribe to and review the show in iTunes…and while you are at it please help us to spread the word by telling all your friends too!
Send in your property stories, questions or moans to podcast@thepropertyvoice.net and we will try and feature YOU on the show too!
Property Investor Toolkit – here is the book link on amazon.co.uk & amazon.com
Get talking!
Join in the discussion, either here in the comments section below, or by emailing us at podcast@thepropertyvoice.net
Start a conversation on Twitter with us @PropertyVoiceUK or on our Facebook page
Transcription of the show
Hello and welcome to another episode of The Property Voice podcast. My name is Richard Brown and it’s a pleasure to have you join me on the show again today.
Before I get into the heart of today’s show, I wanted to share a few numbers and some feedback that I have not made a very big deal about…although probably should have.
Firstly, a month or two back we quietly passed the 100,000 unique downloads marker for the podcast and also had our first 10,000 unique download month too! We also slipped past 100 episodes, including 3 series on: Property Investment Foundations, Property Cycles & Property Finance, along with the various flavours of one-off episodes, where I get to share what’s on my mind, what’s on your mind or what is topical in property at the time of recording.
We have around 45 extremely positive podcast reviews, a 4-digit subscriber mailing list and I regularly receive emails, Facebook & Linked In messages, tweets and the odd telephone call or voice message with comments, questions and queries or just a simple thank you to add into the mix!
So, something tells me, you are getting something out of all this!
OK, so I know this is an acquired taste kind of podcast, with less fluff and gizmo, entertainment value and more straight-talking, knowledge-sharing, deeper-dive insights than some others out there, so that probably means it ain’t gonna get to number one in the charts either! That’s OK with me, as I am more interested in helping a few, serious and committed types to make a success of their property investing journey than topping the popularity charts. Well, if I could have both…
BUT, I would like to do is to make sure that as many people get to know and try the podcast as possible. As you know, I have not gone on about reviews and that kind of thing for a little while now (apart from Dave in the outro that is!), so here’s my request from you before you pack the sun cream, forget about everything and head off on your jollies…please would you consider helping to spread the word? You will, that’s great! Here’s what I would like to suggest:
- An iTunes review will help others to find this podcast, so please do consider leaving us a 5-star review and let’s at least get us up the charts or a noteworthy tip. If you don’t think it’s worth 5-stars, no problem…drop me a line to let me know why instead.
- Share the podcast episode links that get sent out via social media – just a quick share on your Facebook page, Linked In profile or Twitter feed as and when you see a show being notified is all it takes to generate some organic reach. Just click and share now and again.
- Join the mailing list podcast@thepropertyvoice.net to receive show updates and other goodies and then, every now and again consider forwarding on the odd email with the podcast notification included, that would be great. Just a ‘saw this and thought of you’ type of message will probably be better than spamming your entire contact list…there’s no need for that…unless you insist of course lol
So, that’s it really – a call to help spread the word…would that be OK with you? Great, thanks!
Now the promotional bit is over, let’s get back on topic again now…where were we…ah yes…property prices…
Everyone loves to talk about house prices, don’t they? Whilst for me talking about house prices often leads to a speculative guess of what they will do, there is no doubt in my mind that UK house prices have been and will continue to be propped up over the long-term. Some may say by a rigged system that ensures it. So, what are the key factors that give rise to this notion of mine?
Let’s have a little chat and see what unfolds shall we..?
Property Chatter
I have prepared a set of bullet points more than a script for today’s show, so if I fancy, I might dwell on some points more than others. That said, I may just rattle off the list and have you done in next-to-no time this week, as I am feeling ready for a summer break!
Stick with me to the end and I shall let you know what to expect over the rest of the summer.
Personal Financial Factors
- Dual income borrowing
- Bank of Mum & Dad deposits
- Committing more of disposable income to housing costs
Financial Industry & Investment Community Factors
- Record low mortgage rates making mortgages the most affordable pretty much ever
- 30-year and soon to be lifetime / inter-generational mortgages
- Bank leverage ratios
- Bank profit targets
- Shareholder demand for higher dividends and share price growth dictates that investment & lending be extended
Global Factors
- Rich foreign investors, some leaving homes empty
- Weak pound
- Safe-haven investment location
- Strong economy. legal & political system always attracts inward investment
Government Policy
- Greedy Exchequer tax revenues drug addiction
- QE free money to lend
- Inflation eating debt
- Pension freedoms & Help to Buy ISAs, Help to Buy ‘fake deposits’,
Structural Housing Factors
- We live on an island, with limited land, capable of being developed in the right places
- Shortage of new housing supply, overall and social housing in particular
- Planning restrictions
- Empty homes policies
- Reduced transaction levels caused by fewer sales instructions
Socio-economic Change
- Changes in social structure with more family breakdown, single-parent families
- Greater mobility to follow career
- Population changes such as longer life-expectancy and net-migration
- Urbanisation
- ‘NIMBY’s
Property as a Broader Asset Class
- An Englishman's castle
- Homes Under The Hammer & Location, Location, Location investor wannabes
- BTL becoming more mainstream and acceptable…although is more under attack of late
- ‘Stacation’ holiday rentals & second homes (Airbnb, etc.)
Economic Cycles
- Economies go in cycles from boom to bust and boom again
- Property markets also follow these cycles, linked to some extent to economic cycles but in particular to financial cycles
- Property price growth tends to ripple out from London, so follow the wave…
- Inflation makes things home ownership and mortgage payments more affordable over time
- Rising employment drives demand for housing also
All help to prop up house prices...BUT not necessarily over short periods of time!
Many of these factors are propping up prices now, some may dissipate over the coming months and years. However, when they are added together, they do create an insatiable drive for house prices to continue to be driven upwards.
Will we see periods of crazy growth like we did in the 80s or early Noughties…perhaps yes. Will we see periods where prices ease, or even correct after a period of over-extension…definitely yes. But, my view is that property as both a basic need and as an ever-popular asset class, will remain in high demand and will therefore retain it’s upward trajectory over the long-term yes.
We just need to set ourselves up in such a way that we can ride out the occasional lumps and bumps that will crop up from time to time. Overall, property prices will continue to be pushed upwards…because the system is designed for this to happen…we might even think it is rigged to happen.
OK, so that’s me done not only for now but for a few weeks now too! I am going to take a well-earned break and so August is going to be podcast-free for me. I do have a possible bonus episode up my sleeve, but I don’t want to make any promises on that, plus it kind of depends on one or two things that I am waiting to hear about as to whether I record that episode, so I shall have to keep you in suspense on that one.
So, any bonus episodes apart, I shall be back with a brand-new episode on the first Wednesday in September, which is the 6th I believe. That’s a whole month and a 5-week one at that without the podcast, I hope you miss me and come back in September as I aim to refresh and recharge, ready to go again with more property insights and knowledge-sharing…and possibly the hint of a new series too, who knows?
As you may have some time on your hands, why not add iTunes review, social media shares or email forward to your mental or actual to-do list and help to get the word out about The Property Voice Podcast? It would be great if you could. In the meantime, I hope you have a great summer and I hope you get a bit of chill time of your own too.
Finally, you can email me at podcast@thepropertyvoice.net if you want to talk about anything from today’s show or more generally in property investing. As usual, the show notes will be over at the website www.thepropertyvoice.net
But for now, all I want to say is thank you very much for listening once again this week and until next time on The Property Voice Podcast…it’s ‘boa viagem e ate logo’ as my wife would say, or have a great summer holiday and see you soon if you prefer!